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.17).You had a minor 2B buy in February, and a minor 2B sell in March.You thenhad a breakout gap and a 1-2-3 buy! In April you had a sell gap breaking the trend line, a clear sell signal.You wouldthen repurchase on the buy gap in May.You do not sell on breaking the trend line in June, as it was not a 1-2-3situation.You'd still be long. 0 Copyright 1993 CQG INC.FIGURE11.17 September orange juice.186Value Line Cash Weekly and Daily (Figure 11.18).You got a 2B buy on the weekly chart in October 1992.You couldhave shorted the market on the 3-day rule in February 1993 (see daily chart), and repurchased on the same rule.Youthen had a 12-3 sell and a 2B buy in late April.You sell on the 2B in June.The 3-day breaking low rule is notapplicable because the move was not long enough or large enough to be valid.(D Copyright 1993 CQG INC.FIGURE 11.18 Value line cash.187 0 Copyright 1993 CQG INC.FIGURE 11.18 (Continued)188Standard & Poor's 100 (OEX Index) (Figure 11.19).Easy sell on June 1, 1993 from a 2B.Stay short, and lower yourstop from the June 1, 1993 high to the June 29, 1993 minor high of 418.55.Rebuy on 2B in July.@ Copyright 1993 CQG INC.FIGURE 11.19 Standard & Poor's 100.189Japanese Yen Weekly and Daily (Figure 11.20).The weekly chart gave you a simple buy in June at 70.41.You had awhipsaw from a short at 79.13.You would then rebuy at 79.14 on the way up after making a low at 70.31 in July, andresell on January 20 at 81.13, or one tick below high of 81.14.You then had an easy 2B buy in April followed by a 2Bsell in October and a 2B buy in January 1993. Now switch to the daily chart, with a great uptrend in force.You had a 2B sell in March.Note this key point:you only had a one-day followthrough.That's a bad sign-you could have covered and gone flat.Regardless, you golong, breaking above the mid-March high.You'd then sell on the breaking 3-day lows rule in June and wait to buy atnew highs, while waiting for a 1-2-"3" sell which would be complete only when breaking the June low at 89.41.You'dpresently be flat!0 Copyright 1993 CQG INC.FIGURE 11.20 Japanese yen.190C Copyright 1993 CQG INC.FIGURE 11.20 (Continued)191Commodity Research Bureau Index Cash (Figure 11.21).You had a common 1-2-3 correction.Buy on the 2B in May,sell on the following 2B, and then follow the 1-2-3 buy signal. @ Copyright 1993 CQG INC.FIGURE 11.21 Commodity research bureau index cash.192Relative Strength of December Wheat, December Corn, and November Soybeans (Figure 11.22).Notice thatWheat failed to get above the highs of January-March, while Corn and Soybeans did.This tells you that Wheat is theweakest of the three.Corn then made new lows from January, while Soybeans didn't.This tells you Soybeans is thestrongest of the three, followed by Corn and then Wheat.One common strategy is to sell the weakest and buy thestrongest as a spread.This was also pointed out by a 2B in late April.Always buy the strong and sell the weak.C Copyright 1993 CQG INC.FIGURE11.22 Relative strength of three commodities.193 0 Copyright 1993 CQG INC.FIGURE 11.22 (Continued)194Lumber Weekly and Daily (Figure 11.23).Lumber gave you a buy signal with a typical 1-2-3 formation on theweekly chart.You could also have used the 3-day buy rule on the daily chart.The only sale was on a gap breaking thetrend line (daily chart), which created a minor but important 1-2-3.What makes this 1-2-3 important is that the gap andtestbreak of the minor low came after a big move.The longer and bigger the (up) move, the more important a minor(sell) 1-2-3 becomes.Otherwise, this chart was very straightforward: Buy at the low, sell at the high.If you had usedthe 3-day rule as a system, you would have made $15,000 per contract from January to June.1 do not use it as asystem, however; I always integrate it into other rules.Copyright 1993 COG INC.FIGURE 11.23 lumber.195 @ Copyright 1993 CQG INC.FIGURE 11.23 (Continued)196Nikkei Cash (Figure 11.24).This was a classic 1-2-3 buy, followed by a long rally from a long bear market.FIGURE 11.24 Nikkei cash. 12Options: The Key to Triple-Digit ReturnsA lot of floor traders, especially the younger ones.love to write naked options."The fools," they say,speaking of the options buyer. they just keep giving me their money, and I keep selling 'em options that end upexpiring worthless." For 11 months of the year, they, can report a 90 percent success rate writing options, but in thelast month, seemingly out of nowhere, the market moves 10 percent and they find themselves shelling out a lot moremoney than they had made, or even going completely.broke.The consensus on Wall Street is that buying and selling options is the riskiest game in town.The odds areagainst you, the -experts- say: not only do you have to be right about price changes.but you must have nearly perfecttiming.These critics sometimes quote a 1960 SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) study that showed over 85percent of people who bought options lost money.However.this study' evaluated only a single quarter, and it was anextremely dull period at that.Admittedly, making money trading options is more challenging than with stocks, bonds, and other instruments.Nevertheless.they always have been my favorite trading instruments.I began my trading career in options.In January1968, I went to work as an options trader at Filer Schmidt & Company,  making the middle." as we called it, bybrokering options over the counter.By March 1968, I was managing my first hedge fund: Using a $50,000 optionsportfolio, I hedged a 51 million long equities portfolio.I began to grasp the ultimate profit potential of trading options.199200Used correctly, options offer several major advantages over other market instruments:1.They enable you to absolutely limit your risk (downside) while maintaining or increasing your potential(upside).2.They enable you to command large quantities of market assets with only a small amount of capital; that is, theyprovide optimum leverage.3.They allow you to design a flexible trading strategy with minimum risk.4.In the event of dramatic market volatility, premium in options can sometimes move faster and to a greater extentthan the price movement of the underlying instrument, so the probability of earning superior returns is greater.The only catch is, you have to know which options to buy and when [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]

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