Podstrony

• Index
• Victor Sperandeo Trader Vic II Principles.of.Professional.Speculation.(1998)
• Hogan James P Giganci T 1 Gwiezdne dziedzictwo
• Piotr Sztompka Socjologia (2)
• Kunzru Hari Impresjonista
• Miasto i gwiazdy
• Dziennik Trojkowej Bridget Jones czyli Brygidy Janoskiej red H Gizy (2)
• Michał Bałudzki Dom otwarty
• Quinnell A J Cisza
• Lew Tołstoj Anna Karenina
• Nienacki Zbigniew Pierwsza przygoda Pana Samochod
• zanotowane.pl
• doc.pisz.pl
• pdf.pisz.pl
• karro31.pev.pl

[ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]
.first chapter of this book, each collapsed 45 percent in less thanI spent many years as a broker in futures-only firms or as thetwo months (just like the 1987 stock market).token futures broker in several stock houses.Believe me, I saw it Only in sugar did a futures market go up almost as fast ashappen again and again.It's one of the reasons why I quit being a it went down.The average of these four market futures crashesbroker.Eventually, I knew I might succumb to this temptation.is about downside was three times faster than theIn futures, commissions are normally paid monthly basedprevious upside move.on the entire month's production.In futures, the last day of the This brings me to this major routine of the market: Bearmonth is known as day." Check out how markets make much shallower retracements than bull markets:many times futures make at least a short-term high or low on one-third, one-fifth, and one-eighth retracements versus the.382,the last day of the month.5,.618, etc., retracements of bull markets.It's harder to get backIn stocks, it takes five business days from the time a stock on the train if you attempt to in a bear mar-is sold until it is settled, i.e., when the money changes hands.ket.Settlement day is the day the broker gets credit for commissions.There are so many profound trading implications from this82 83The Routine of the MarketChapterThe minimum margin on one T-bond contract is Iffact I can only begin to scratch the surface of them in this book.Chart patterns that work in bull trends don't work the same in the cash price of bonds stays the same between now and Decem-bear markets.A system that is good in an uptrend is not so good ber and you went long December bonds, that's about a 29 percentin a downtrend.Just like stock trading (with its 50 percent mar- return.gins) produces different trading patterns than futures trading Previously I talked about how a 35 percent return would(with its 5 percent margins), so bear markets must be treated make you rich if you could sustain it over 10 years.Here are 29differently than bull markets.percent and 45 percent returns you can have if only gold andI have not backtested it (I'll leave that to all you out there bonds remain in nontrending most markets dowith those computerized test but I am sure a shorter 85 percent of the time.It's the futures equivalent of selling anmoving average (like 15 days) works better than a 20-day mov- option with a large premium.You get paid to sit.ing average during down markets.If there is one single reason Here's one way I know to use this premium play in yourwhy there will never be any Holy Grail system that is immensely trading decisions.Whatever future you are thinking about for ain all circumstances, the difference between bull and premium play, find out the range that occurred before in a timebear markets has got to be it.interval equal to the time ahead of your premium future on theday of your analysis.In the case of gold, December is a little more than threeCarrying Chargesmonths ahead of when I write.The last three months of tradinghas seen the Comex gold contract move in a rangeAnother routine that never seems to get the attention it deservesof about 20.20, or $2,020 (when you multiply by 100 ounces infrom all those market experts is the carrying charge betweena contract).$480 to $2,020 is about a 23 percent carry chargedifferent months of the same futures market.payout-to-risk ratio.The higher the number, the better the oddsIn August of 1994, August gold closed at 383.30 (I'llto go short (or, in the case of the positive carry charge of bonds,use this as the cash price of gold).The December gold contractgo long).finished at 388.10, a $480 premium over August ($355.10 -Of course, markets can suddenly explode against the direc-$383.30 x 100, the number of ounces in a contract).If gold pricestion of the carry charge.So this technique, like every technique,stay level between now and December 1, the price of Decembercannot be alone.But it's another thing to consider whengold will gradually fall to 383.30.Since the minimum margin onyour other indicators expect the market to go in the direction ofgold is a little over $1,000, that's about a 45 percent return onthe carrying charge.your money if you went short and the price of gold held steady.Today, September Treasury bonds closed at 102-12 whileDecember bonds closed at 101-19, a 25-point ($781) differenceMinor (But Profitable) Routines(remember that a tick for a bond contract is The ratioThe Rule of Doubles says that when something has doubled inbetween the delivery dates of December and September bondsprice, it is due for a It applies to doubling the money youis constant, so for purposes of illustration I will call the Septem-invested, as well.It's one of the reasons why a floor trader toldber close the cash price.(Yes, I understand that since the Sep-me to take your money off the table when a future has returnedtember contract is also discounted to the present bond price,profits equal to the amount you put up in margin.It's also onethis figure is not accurate.But for illustration purposes, it will do.)84 85The Routine of the MarketChapter1Selling breeds selling and buying breeds buying.If the bondof the reasons why the Initial-Maintenance Opening Rule worksopening is strong, the stock opening will (usually) be strong.Ifso well.gold is up on the the tendency is for every other com-The Rule 72 is usually taken to mean the interest rate rule.modity from crude oil to soybeans to be up.If you want to know how long it will take to double your money,It works the same way on the close.If the bonds close ondivide by the interest percent your money is earning, i.e., yourtheir daily lows, sell the stock market.If the meats are weak, allmoney will double in eight years if you compound it at 9 percent.things being equal (no obvious fundamentals), the grains willBut futures trading has its own Rule of 72.close weak.If a future has retraced 72 percent of a move, it will (even-During the late March/early April period we saw virtuallytually) go all the way back to the start of the move.This ruleevery commodity future rally together and then fall together.Weworks better on short-term swings of three days or less [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]